Geotimes Home | AGI Home | Information Services | Geoscience Education | Public Policy | Programs | Publications | Careers
The past 20 years have seen a steady and predictable decrease in the percentage
of global energy consumption satisfied by oil and coal. At the same time, the
share of global energy consumption satisfied by a combination of natural gas,
nuclear and other renewables is increasing — what Jesse Ausubel at The
Rockefeller University describes as the “decarbonization” of global
energy.
There are many excellent reasons why U.S. policies and energy strategies should
support and encourage this energy transition. These reasons include energy efficiency,
environmental well-being, economic stability, health of the future energy workforce,
supply distribution, U.S. and global security and mitigation of an energy crises.
Political forces may forestall global energy trends, but decarbonization of
energy sources is an inevitable reality.
The United States has a remarkable and absolutely critical opportunity for a
public-private partnership that will lead the world into the natural gas economy.
Natural gas is an efficient fuel. It has significant environmental advantages
over coal and oil, and is more broadly distributed across the globe. Thus, once
the transportation networks are established, it will provide long-term price,
economic stability and security benefits; and it will serve as feedstock for
hydrogen in a hydrogen economy.
To facilitate decarbonization, U.S. policy makers must recognize the significant
change in the oil and gas industry that has occurred in the last two decades,
implement a redirection of federal resources, and define a mutually beneficial
private-public partnership. It is not too late, but it is close.
Private-public partnership
For the foreseeable future, a balance in energy sources is critical to satisfy
global demand. Stalwarts such as oil, and to some degree coal, will remain prominent
sources of global energy for at least the next several decades. But these are
sunset sources of energy, and federal policy and investment should be couched
accordingly. Any dollars spent on new research initiatives in coal are dollars
spent against natural global trends.
In terms of oil, significantly more will be left in known North American fields
than will be discovered by new exploration in North America. Although greater
access for new drilling is alluring, and in some cases makes sense, oil independence
as a nation is a fallacy that we should not strive for. To the contrary, energy
independence is achievable. For oil, federal policy and investment in the form
of research, technology and incentives should be directed almost exclusively
toward enhanced recovery from known fields — largely the responsibility
of the independent oil producer. Enhanced oil production will serve to bridge
the gap to a natural gas future. As a benefit, surface environmental impact
will be minimal, because no new lands will be used.
In terms of natural gas, the global resource potential is very large. To date,
global natural gas has been produced largely in association with oil. So those
countries that produce and supply oil also produce natural gas. Currently, about
one-third of U.S. annual production of natural gas comes from unconventional
gas, or sources not associated with oil, such as coalbed methane, shale gas,
basin-centered and tight gas. Other unconventional gas sources include subsalt,
aquifer gas and gas hydrates.
Combined with the conventional or associated natural gas, these unconventional
sources are the future of global natural gas supply (Geotimes, November
2002 and March 2003). Because their behavior and distribution are not well understood,
unconventional sources will require significant research and technology. The
private sector will absorb the bulk of the expense to explore for and produce
these natural gas resources, but federal officials need to recognize their role
— responsibility, really — to invest in research and technology and
provide incentives for exploration and production.
Vice President Cheney’s research policy, rightfully, relied heavily on
input from the major and large independent oil companies. Access and incentives
were the message of the day. The critical missing piece was the reality of paying
for and conducting the research and technology development required to transition
to a natural gas economy.
Unlike the nuclear industry, the renewables industry and the coal industry,
the oil and gas industry never received significant government support for research.
The oil and gas business is a technical one. Drilling and operational technologies
have advanced to a point where virtually any land drilling location is technically
feasible; ocean water depth is less and less a limiting factor; oil and gas
fields can be developed using multilateral well bores from a single vertical
well bore; and downhole logging tools provide remarkable information about the
rock-fluid system. These and other technological advancements have combined
to improve efficiency across the oil and gas industry significantly. Importantly,
it was the private industry that provided the lion’s share of the research
and development that resulted in the creation and application of advanced technology
and enhanced efficiency — billions of dollars in funding each year.
Those days are gone, as are most of the research labs. Most sources show private
sector funding for oil and gas research is down 50 percent to 75 percent in
the past decade, and decreasing. Those who run companies today will tell you
that they still consider technology to be a critical factor to business success.
However, unlike in the past, major companies and large independents can no longer
afford to operate these research and development facilities because the payout
time — commonly on the order of 3 to 10 years — far exceeds what the
capital markets and commodity price cycles will bear.
Where do we stand?
We are going in the wrong direction, and we are going there fast! Oil and gas
research programs across federal agencies have been targeted for massive budget
cuts each year for the past several years. For the Department of Energy (DOE),
the president’s fiscal year 2004 budget requested of Congress for research
directed at major U.S. energy production and consumption represents 3 percent
of the total DOE budget. Of that 3 percent, 40 percent is for coal, 39 percent
for renewables, 16 percent for nuclear, and only 2 percent is for oil and 3
percent is for natural gas. Let me say that a different way: of the $23.4 billion
DOE budget, $315.6 million (1.3 percent) is for the President’s Coal Research
Initiative, yet only $26.6 million (0.1 percent) is for natural gas, and $15
million (0.1 percent) is for oil. Compare that to global and U.S. energy consumption,
where oil represents 40 percent, and natural gas 25 percent and rising. Let
me say that again: 65 percent of the world’s energy is supplied by oil
and natural gas, and a combined 0.2 percent of the proposed fiscal year 2004
DOE budget is targeted toward oil and gas research.
Office of Fossil Energy programs for 2004 are required to focus on supporting
three of the president’s top energy policy initiatives: Clear Skies, Climate
Change and Energy Security. To earn a spot in the fiscal year 2004 budget request,
Fossil Energy programs had to demonstrate that they will either support the
development of lower cost, more effective pollution control technologies or
help diversify the nation’s future sources of clean-burning natural gas;
that they will expand the nation’s technological options for reducing greenhouse
gases either by increasing power plant efficiencies or by capturing and isolating
these gases from the atmosphere; or that they will measurably add to the nation’s
energy security by providing a short-term emergency response, such as the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve, or a longer term alternative to imported oil, such as hydrogen
and methane hydrates.
Investing in a realistic future
In order to ensure a smooth transition to a global natural gas and eventual
hydrogen economy, federal investments for the next 20 years should support the
production of coal as a long-term bridge fuel, but redirect any new coal research
dollars toward more realistic future energy sources. Federal funding should
also maintain research and development investment in various renewable and nuclear
energy sources; support enhanced oil recovery programs in the United States
via private-public research and technology partnerships; and invest heavily
in natural gas research and technology across the upstream to downstream spectrum.
Such future investment would support and advance energy efficiency, environmental
well-being, economic stability, health of the future energy workforce, and U.S.
and global security.
|
Geotimes Home | AGI Home | Information Services | Geoscience Education | Public Policy | Programs | Publications | Careers |