When
I was asked to take over as scientist-in-charge of the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory
(YVO) in 2002, I was unaware that soon I would be responding to a rapidly growing
urban legend (or perhaps a rural one in this case). Just Google for the words
Yellowstone and Doomsday, and youll find hundreds
of entries from scores of Web sites warning that the world is about to end at
the hands of Americas first national park and largest restless caldera.
In the BBC-Discovery Channel docudrama
Supervolcano, Yellowstone volcano erupts violently, sending hundreds
of cubic miles worth of debris into the atmosphere and creating plumes
of ash and debris that race at hundreds of miles an hour. Although this type
of eruption has happened in the geologic past, scientists say an eruption of
that magnitude is unlikely to happen anytime soon. Courtesy of Discovery Communications.
Of course, the Yellowstone caldera is a volcano, and it almost certainly will
erupt again someday. Its possible, though unlikely, that future eruptions
could reach the magnitude of Yellowstones three largest explosive eruptions,
2.1 million, 1.3 million and 640,000 years ago. Smaller eruptions, however,
are far more likely, and no eruption seems imminent on the timescale that most
people truly care about their lifetime or perhaps even the next few hundred
or thousands of years.
These realities, however, do not always make it into the coverage we see in
TV documentaries, on the Internet or in the popular press. Sometimes, the media
bends the realities to make for better entertainment rather than better science,
as evidenced by my experiences over the past three years evaluating everything
from fictional movies about Yellowstone to dispelling myths on Internet chat
rooms.
What actually is happening
So, why all the attention on Yellowstone volcano now? Although scientists first
recognized Yellowstones history of repeated titanic eruptions back in
the 1960s, the general public became aware of them only during the past five
years or so. The upsurge in interest can be tied partly to the release of an
episode of the BBC-produced Horizon in 2000, which addressed volcanic
eruptions at Yellowstone and was frequently replayed in the United Kingdom and
in North America on the Discovery Channel.
Around the same time, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) signed a memorandum
of understanding with the University of Utah and Yellowstone National Park to
create YVO. The idea was to formalize what had been an unofficial observatory
for many years and create a stronger framework for monitoring and research.
A few years later, in late 2002, a number of geological factors contributed
to ramping up public interest in Yellowstone and its volcanic potential.
First, surface waves from the magnitude-7.9 Denali, Alaska, earthquake triggered
about 400 small temblors within the park, 3,100 kilometers (about 1,900 miles)
distant from the epicenter. Next, Steamboat Geyser, Yellowstones tallest
and most unpredictable geyser, erupted in March 2003 and again in April and
October. A new and vigorously steaming 75-meter (245-foot) line of steam vents
erupted within sight of the Norris-Mammoth Road. A trail in the Norris Geyser
Basin was closed because of increased steaming and resulting elevated ground
temperatures. Our coordinating scientist Robert B. Smith of the University of
Utah spearheaded a seismic and GPS-based experiment trying to understand the
nature of the changes to hydrothermal features at Norris.
At the same time, new USGS mapping of thermal features on the floor of Yellowstone
Lake resulted in a flurry of articles on Yellowstones potential for hydrothermal
explosions events in which geothermal groundwater is flashed to steam,
hurling rocks substantial distances and forming craters. These articles reasonably
highlighted the active thermal features beneath the lake and the importance
of hydrothermal explosions, but they also incorrectly implied that active bulges
were rapidly forming beneath the lake, that they were ready to explode, and
that they could cause volcanism in their wake.
Eruption on the small screen
With all this
attention on Yellowstone late in 2003, BBC Science decided to produce a two-hour
docudrama on the volcano and its potential for widespread devastation.
Entitled Supervolcano, it chronicles a near-future cataclysm modeled
after the Huckleberry Ridge eruption 2.1 million years ago, which vented more
than 2,500 cubic kilometers of volcanic debris (enough to bury the state of
Texas 12 feet deep). The BBC movie cost approximately $5.5 million to make and
was co-produced with Discovery Channel, NHK and several other global television
interests. It premiered in the United Kingdom in March and in the United States
in April.
Jake Lowenstern, real-life scientist-in-charge of Yellowstone Volcano Observatory
(YVO), collects geothermal gas in the field. In the docudrama Supervolcano,
Michael Riley plays the scientist-in-charge of YVO (Rick Lieberman), and he
consulted with Lowenstern on everything from dress code to pronunciation of
geologic terms in preparation for his role. Image courtesy of Fraser Goff, USGS.
Scientists from USGS, Yellowstone National Park, the University of Utah and
elsewhere in academia were visited by the films producer and writer, prior
to filming. They asked us countless questions during script development, including
the following: How do you monitor the volcano? What phenomena imply an eruption?
Who is responsible for what tasks? What do you do in the field? Where do you
stay? How do you get around? Later, we reviewed a draft script for the drama
and provided them with our comments and critiques. Michael Riley, the actor
playing the YVO scientist-in-charge, phoned me twice, and we had lengthy conversations
about topics ranging from my typical day to dress code to the proper
pronunciation of place names and geological jargon.
In the end, the BBC Science team did an impressive job of addressing the sorts
of scientific issues we would grapple with during the start of an eruption.
The drama unfolds as a true scientific thriller, both gripping and fact-filled.
The characters, though based only loosely on real people, had motivations and
interests similar to mine and those of my colleagues. Although we strongly would
have preferred portrayal of the effects of a small eruption, their intent was
always to provide a worst-case scenario, and the final product did that very
well.
Surprisingly, our experience with two documentary film programs was somewhat
more negative. Both BBC and the National Geographic Channel requested our assistance
on documentaries that would explore the effects of supereruptions.
The BBC program followed its showing of Supervolcano, while the National
Geographic program was for its series Naked Science. My naïve assumption
was that the filmmakers would interview their subjects and then synthesize the
results of what they had learned. In both cases, though, we felt as if our roles
had been scripted beforehand and that the filmmakers relentlessly pursued several
key quotes that fit neatly within their desired narrative.
We were never given the opportunity to critique the Naked Science program,
and the final product was highly sensationalized. The BBC did allow us to view
an early version of their documentary, one which we felt was highly misleading
about actual geologic hazards and risks at Yellowstone National Park. Their
revised program, entitled The Truth About Yellowstone, was broadcast
in the United Kingdom and elsewhere overseas. Although it was much better than
the earlier draft, it tended to focus more on corroborating Supervolcano than
on providing an unbiased assessment of current events and likely volcanic scenarios.
Discovery Channel opted to replace The Truth About Yellowstone with its
own documentary hosted by Tom Brokaw. Overall, that documentary was balanced,
providing both the science and the sensational with appropriate perspective.
Explosions in the newspaper
Under Pressure? Yellowstone may be getting ready to erupt, scientists
say. This alarming headline grabbed many readers attention in Longmont,
Colo., in December 2003. Actually, the associated article in the local paper,
the Times-Call, was quite good and with the exception of the headline,
made no mention of any scientists who thought Yellowstone might be getting ready
to erupt. Ive since learned that headline writers dont always worry
too much about matching headlines to storylines. They can creatively embellish
the fundamental science without any serious consequences, at least to themselves.
And that was true to a limited degree for the wide range of coverage Yellowstone
has received in recent years in the New York Times, the Los Angeles
Times and CBS News, among many, many others. Coordinating scientists Robert
Smith, Henry Heasler (the park geologist) and I have done interviews for scores
of newspapers and magazines (including Geotimes), as well as television
and radio news stories, some of which were accurate and reasonable, whereas
others were sensationalized and twisted.
Generally, the most carefully researched articles about volcanism at Yellowstone
were penned by writers from the local newspapers in Billings, Mont., Jackson,
Wyo., and other nearby towns. This paralleled my experience at Mount St. Helens
in October 2004, where the local writers were more likely to take the time to
get the story right.
When confronted with a litany of potential eruption scenarios, local reporters
covering Mount St. Helens thoroughly educated themselves about the volcano,
its history and the techniques used to monitor volcanic activity. They did not
want to overstate the danger once they understood that a relatively nonhazardous
effusive eruption was underway.
Similarly, at Yellowstone, local reporters were typically careful, whereas those
sitting at a greater distance from the park often viewed the story as ripe for
titillation. I dont think its a coincidence that so
much of the hyperbolic press on the Yellowstone volcano comes from the United
Kingdom. In reading many of the U.K. news articles, I cannot but sense an unstated
glee as the author recounts the future doom headed for their brethren across
the pond.
Cataclysms on the Internet
Not surprisingly,
the Internet is the biggest source of misinformation about Yellowstones
volcanic past and present. By mid-2003, Internet news magazines and chat rooms
had exploded with speculation and fabrications about current events at Yellowstone.
One online report was cobbled together from a series of articles, emails
and official information. It included nuggets such as The [Yellowstone]
Lake is now closed to the public. It is filled with dead fish floating everywhere.
The same is true of the Yellowstone River and most of the other streams in the
Park. Later in the same report came the following: The movement
of magma has been detected just three-tenths of a mile below the bulging surface
of the ground in Yellowstone raising concerns that this super volcano may erupt
soon.
The Norris Geyser Basin in Yellowstone National
Park, shown steaming here in August 2003, is home to many hydrothermal features,
which are fueled by an enormous magma chamber seated below much of the park.
Image courtesy of Jim Peaco/NPS.
Needless to say, these statements were not true, and someone did not do a very
thorough job of fact checking the story but that did not stop dispersal
of these misleading reports all over the Internet. Similarly, an online Web
forum reported that USGS had secretly sent 200 geologists into Yellowstone to
study the situation. I can only dream that USGS had such resources!
Most of these articles referred to generic scientists who were worried
about one thing or concerned about another. None of these people were ever mentioned
by name, and I certainly have not met any of these generic scientists
but they sure did seem worried. As a result of these stories, enthusiasts flocked
to our real-time data on seismicity, ground deformation and stream flow, looking
for any anomaly that might foreshadow an approaching eruption and devastation.
Their musings provided fascinating, but unsettling, reading for YVO scientists.
Wind, trucks and snowmobiles were interpreted as tremors, swarms and other signs
of instability.
Although the denizens of these chat rooms may have had scant geological education,
they were passionate. One online forum sent us a series of penetrating questions
about how we monitor Yellowstone. Smith, Heasler and I responded, knowing that
our words would be posted on their Web site. Although we were unsure whether
answering was a good idea, in the end, we responded as forthrightly as possible.
While answering their questions, we admitted that our monitoring system could
not predict certain kinds of events (for example, localized steam or hydro-thermal
explosions), that we do not monitor gas flux or composition in real time, and
that there are many topics that earth scientists still do not understand.
Our letter was painstakingly analyzed by many in their group, some of whom still
accused us of obfuscation and evasion. We soon noted, however, a significant
curtailment in their concern messages to their Yellowstone chat room
slowed to a near halt. Overall, I think we gave them what they needed, and we
turned a few skeptics into grudging admirers.
Observations and lessons learned
My experiences over the past few years have necessarily caused me to reflect
on the public face of science, scientific information and scientists themselves.
Prior to my role at YVO, Id worked as a full-time researcher on the geochemistry
of magmas and their related hydrothermal systems. I recognized that although
my research was relevant to volcanology and economic geology, it explored subjects
too arcane to be of much interest to the public. My focus was toward other scientists,
and when reporters did venture near my door, I was challenged to convey properly
the significance of my work while keeping things simple, technically accurate
and appropriately reflective of work done by others.
So it came as a bit of a shock when regardless of anything Id actually
done as a research scientist, I was now solidly in the role as the point person
for a whole host of critical questions. Will it erupt? Why not? When? How do
we know?
Its been a fascinating transition one that was not necessarily
desired, but that has taught me useful lessons in communicating technical information
to a public that truly cares about what scientists say and how we say it. These
lessons hold true for people dealing with media in any profession, not just
the earth sciences.
The first lesson is not to talk about a sensitive subject unless youve
thought about it before, talked about it with others and gotten some feedback.
Fortunately at YVO, we have three coordinating scientists with varied expertise
and different home institutions, so we have natural checks and balances when
we communicate to the public. Weve learned that its critical to
keep things as simple as possible. If youre trying to answer a question,
do not give an answer that will spark two more questions. And while there may
be 10 different possible ways to answer a technical question, theres always
one that is a bit more direct and more intuitively satisfying, and thats
the one you should use.
Second, tell the truth and admit when you dont know something. If you
tell the truth as you see it, many will still call you a baldfaced liar. If
you choose to hide anything, theyll know you are one.
And last, dont confuse enthusiasm with good outreach: It may work for
high school kids but it wont work with the New York Times or nightly
news hours. When we get too casual or enthusiastic, our words come back to haunt
us. Our excitement about understanding earthquakes, volcanoes, hurricanes and
floods can be misinterpreted. Reporters may confuse our reconstruction of past
events with a prediction of future events. Ultimately, the latter holds their
interest.
In the end, the reporters and filmmakers have the final say. They write the
articles and scripts, they choose the quotes and sound bites, and they have
the attention of the public. When they work hard to get the facts correct, it
pays off. The Supervolcano drama was successful in large part because
it was authentic, making the plot more gripping and the whole experience more
educational. When the science is ignored, or misunderstood, everyone loses.
The challenge for us scientists is to relay both the details and the context
of our work, so that society understands that science is ultimately a human
endeavor sometimes uncertain, often complex, but always exciting.
What is a supervolcano? The term supervolcano implies an eruption of magnitude 8 on the Volcano Explosivity Index, meaning that more than 1,000 cubic kilometers (250 cubic miles) of magma (partially molten rock) are erupted. The most recent such event on Earth occurred 74,000 years ago at the Toba Caldera in Sumatra, Indonesia. Examples of volcanoes that have produced exceedingly voluminous eruptions
and formed large calderas in the past 2 million years include Yellowstone,
Long Valley in eastern California, Toba in Indonesia and Taupo in New
Zealand. Other supervolcanoes would likely include the large caldera volcanoes
of Japan, Indonesia and South America, among others, according to USGS. |
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