Debates about
energy prices and sources are always simmering. But in August, when oil neared
the $50-per-barrel threshold, the debate quickly began to boil — with renewed
discussion on reducing foreign dependence on oil, improving energy efficiency
at lower cost and decreasing environmental consequences. These goals, two MIT
scientists suggest, are already attainable via one alternative solution: gasoline-electric
hybrids already in the marketplace, such as the Toyota Prius and the Honda Civic
Hybrid.
Staff at the National Renewable Energy
Lab examine Toyota’s first “market-ready” hydrogen fuel cell vehicle during
a vehicle demonstration in April 2004. A new study says that fuel cell cars
and hybrid cars have nearly the same efficiency rating, but that hydrogen fuel
cell vehicles are likely many years away from hitting the market. Photo courtesy
of Warren Gretz of NREL.
Following the ongoing energy debates in the news, John Deutch and Nurettin Demirdöven
decided to run efficiency modeling tests on hybrids and fuel cell cars. Writing
in a special Aug. 13 edition of Science dedicated to the topic of the
hydrogen economy, they say that the two technologies produced nearly the same
efficiency ratings, and both doubled the efficiency ratings of normal passenger
cars. They suggest that the science behind hydrogen fuel cells is so far away
from being able to mass-produce cars that the government should focus funding
on tax incentives for hybrids and improving that technology — thus decreasing
the need for oil and reducing emissions now.
The authors’ conclusion is a little short-sighted, says George Sverdrup,
manager of hydrogen and fuel cell vehicle technologies at the Department of
Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in Colorado. Moving
to hybrid internal combustion engines will reduce the quantity of petroleum
that the United States uses for transportation and will reduce carbon dioxide
emissions now, Sverdrup says. “But as we continue to increase vehicle-miles-traveled
each year, our use of petroleum and carbon dioxide emissions will once again
be on the rise.” What the United States needs, he says, is both near-term
and long-term solutions.
Traditionally, Sverdrup says, the U.S. government’s role has been to fund
longer-term, higher-risk research and development, leaving commercialization
and deployment of technologies to the private sector. Since 2003, for example,
when President Bush unveiled the $1.2 billion Hydrogen Fuel Initiative, the
Department of Energy has been working with the private sector to develop the
technology needed for commercially viable hydrogen fuel cell vehicles to become
available to the public by 2020. A good compromise, Sverdrup says, would be
for the government to invest in research and development for higher-risk technologies
while also continuing to invest in hybrid technologies and provide tax incentives
for consumers.
“In 1992, our goal at NREL was to have a showroom that sold a hybrid on
its floor by 2002,” says Terry Penney, advanced vehicles technology manager
at NREL, and they met that goal. Ten years from now, he says, the goal is to
have entire fleets of hybrid cars.
Although scientists are striving to have a mass-producible hydrogen fuel cell
car in 10 to 15 years as well, the more realistic timeline is probably 50 years,
Penney says. First, researchers need to work out the many bugs in the system,
he says, such as where the hydrogen comes from, what kinds of waste the production
of hydrogen leaves behind, how to safely store hydrogen, and infrastructure
issues. And the government, auto industry, and oil and gas industries need to
get together to do that, Penney says. Thus, getting more hybrids on the roads
now is a good interim goal.
However, Deutch and Demirdöven write, consumers will not begin buying hybrids
en masse until either prices decrease or the government offers more subsidization.
Currently, the federal government offers a $1,500 tax credit for people who
buy hybrids, but that program is set to phase out over the next three years.
Indeed, price is one of the main reasons that consumers give for not buying
hybrids, says Anthony Pratt, a senior manager at J.D. Power and Associates.
Hybrids average $3,400 more than their standard counterparts. Until the price
comes down, Pratt says, the other reasons for buying a hybrid — including
reducing dependence on foreign oil, reducing vehicle pollutants, doing something
good for the environment and saving gas money — will not push people over
the edge.
Even when gas prices hover nationwide around $2.00 a gallon, consumers are not
likely to switch. J.D. Power statistics show that without other incentives,
consumers are not likely to change their behavior until gas prices hit $3.50
or $4.00 a gallon. Department of Energy statistics show that number to be closer
to $5.00 a gallon, Penney says.
“The whole thing has to be looked at from the all-important consumer’s
perspective,” Penney says. In the end, he says, whether or not hydrogen
cars ever get on the roads or hybrids become more than a niche market is up
to public perception and what people feel.
Megan Sever
Next month, “Fuel economies, Part II”
examines the sticker: How many miles to the gallon are you actually getting?
Links:
NREL Advanced Vehicles
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