John P. Bluemle
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Book Review:
The Skeptical Environmentalist:
Measuring the Real State of the World
Review in Context
Maps
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The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring
the Real State of the World by Bjørn
Lomborg. Cambridge University Press (2001). ISBN 0 521 80447 7(hardback)
or 0 521 01068 3 (paperback). 515 p.
John P. Bluemle |
Bjørn Lomborg begins his book with the comment that he “is not
a rocket scientist.” Even so, his new book, The Skeptical Environmentalist,
is causing a lot of fireworks and considerable anguish from many in the environmental
community.
Lomborg’s book was controversial when it was published in 1998 in Danish.
The English translation, released in 2001, is now causing controversy in England
and the United States.
The Skeptical Environmentalist is the result of four years of rigorous
statistical examination of the main environmental concerns of the past 30 years.
From his research, Lomborg concludes that the state of things on Earth is getting
better on almost every count. Lomborg says he considers himself an environmentalist
because he “cares for the earth and the future health and well-being of
its succeeding generations.” But his analysis of environmental facts leaves
him at odds with many environmentalists, as his analysis has clearly left him
with a favorable impression of human beings and their achievements. “We
now have more leisure time, greater security and fewer accidents, more education,
more amenities, higher incomes, fewer starving, more food, and a longer and
healthier life,” he writes.
Lomborg’s book has drawn considerable attention. Although it may cause
some problems for the more militant and political environmentalists, it should
be welcomed by anyone genuinely concerned about the environment.
I read about a dozen reviews of this book on the Internet. Two were favorable
and the others critical (a couple were nearly apoplectic). Some reviewers trash
Lomborg’s credentials (“He is not even knowledgeable about the environment
and certainly not qualified to write such a book”). Others accuse him of
being a right-wing nut. The World Resources Institute, has posted a Web site
to “help environmental educators” deal with Lomborg’s “distorted
quotations, inaccurate or misleading citations, misuse of data, interpretations
that contradict well-established scientific work and many other errors.”
In my reading, I saw none of these faults.
Lomborg is a political scientist, economist and statistician. He uses long-term
statistical trends to make comparisons. I believe his is a valid approach, perhaps
the best method possible for “measuring the real state of the world”
(the subtitle of the book). His 515-page book tackles this assertion in six
parts, with names such as “The Litany” to “Can Human Prosperity
Continue?” to “Pollution: Does it Undercut Human Prosperity?”
Each part is divided into chapters, with a total of 25 chapters. “Tomorrow’s
Problems,” for example, contains the chapters called “Our Chemical
Fears,” “Biodiversity” and “Global Warming.” The 65-page
chapter on global warming is the longest in the book.
Lomborg begins by reciting what he calls the “Litany” of our ever-deteriorating
environment, the view shaped by the images and messages that confront us every
day on television, in the newspapers, in political statements, and in conversations
at work and at the kitchen table.
We hear constantly that the environment is deteriorating: Our resources are
running out. The population is growing, leaving less to eat. The air and water
are becoming more polluted. The planet’s species are becoming extinct in
vast numbers. Our forests are disappearing, fish stocks are collapsing, and
coral reefs are dying. We are paving over nature, destroying the wilderness,
decimating the biosphere, and will end up killing ourselves in the process.
We are causing global warming by burning fossil fuels. The list of disasters
that global warming will cause is frightening and nearly endless. The world’s
ecosystem is breaking down. In short, we are fast approaching the absolute limit
of viability.
Lomborg believes that available evidence can back up few, if any, of these contentions.
He points out, for example, that in 1900 we lived an average of 30 years; today
we live for 67. United Nations statistics show that we have reduced poverty
more in the last 50 years than we did in the preceding 500, and this reduction
has happened in practically every country. Furthermore, fewer people are starving.
Lomborg believes that global warming is real, but that its size and future projections
are unrealistically pessimistic. He adds that the commonly proposed cure of
early and radical fossil fuel cutbacks is worse than the affliction, and that
at any rate, total impact of continued global warming, even if it is anthropogenic,
would not pose a devastating problem for our future.
When we assess the state of the world, we need to do so through comparison.
Legend has it that when someone remarked to Voltaire, “Life is hard,”
he retorted, “Compared to what?” Basically, the choice of comparison
is crucial. Lomborg argues that the comparison should be with how it was before.
Such comparison shows us the extent of our progress — are we better off
or worse off now than previously? Lomborg asserts that we need to focus on trends.
Compared to the past, conditions have improved for humans.
We should cite figures and trends that are true. This demand may seem glaringly
obvious, but the public environmental debate has been characterized by a tendency
toward rash treatment of the truth. The Litany has pervaded the debate so deeply
and for so long that blatantly false claims can be made again and again, without
references, and yet still be believed because, as Time magazine said
in 2000, “Everyone knows the planet is in bad shape.”
Lomborg does not suggest that primary research in the environmental field has
been inadequate. He believes that environmental scientists are competent and
well balanced. Lomborg blames miscommunication: The faulty communication of
environmental knowledge taps deeply into our doomsday beliefs and causes widespread
misunderstanding. Many environmental organizations promote misinformation that
the media constantly repeats.
The constant repetition of the Litany has serious consequences. It makes us
scared and more likely to spend our resources and attention solving phantom
problems while ignoring real and pressing — and possibly non-environmental
— issues. It is important to know the real state of the world. We need
to get the facts and the best possible information to make correct decisions.
Politics that disregard science and knowledge will not stand the test of time.
Indeed, no better basis for sound political decisions exists than the best available
scientific evidence, especially in the fields of resource management and environmental
protection.
Lomborg’s book sheds needed light on the real state of the world. I recommend
it to anyone interested in our global environment. Some of the media seem to
have embraced Lomborg’s book. Their favorable reaction may reflect the
fact that the book is a credible attempt at refuting many of the more outrageous
environmentalist claims — a point of view that is seldom heard.
The Skeptical Environmentalist is the most valuable book available in
many years on public policy in general, not only environmental policy in particular.
It should be required reading for all legislators, government bureaucrats and
corporate executives who preside over the ever-increasing array of environmental
regulations and policies.
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This month’s book review offers one perspective on a book that has
sparked lively and often contentious debate over its methods and conclusions.
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U.S. Geological Survey
MF-2352. NEW MEXICO. Geologic map of the Tetilla Peak quadrangle, Santa Fe and Sandoval Counties, New Mexico by D.A. Sawyer, R.R. Shroba, S.A. Minor and R.A. Thompson. 2002. Scale 1:24,000. One color sheet accompanied by 25 pages of text. Available free
MF-2355. NEBRASKA and IOWA. Surficial geologic map of the Greater Omaha area, Nebraska and Iowa by R.R. Shroba, T.R. Brandt, and J.C. Blossom. Prepared in cooperation with the Conservation and Survey Division, Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Nebraska-Lincoln. 2001. Scale 1:100,000. One color sheet. Available free, or for $20 as print-on-demand.
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I-2745. COLORADO. Historic trail map of the Trinidad 1o x 2o quadrangle, southern Colorado by G.R. Scott. Prepared in cooperation with the Denver Public Library, Western History and Genealogy Department. 2001. Scale 1:250,000. One color sheet. $7.
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